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Forecast Onboarding Options

The different forecast starting methods in Fathom

Updated this week

This feature is included with Fathom Pro - the plan with access to all of Fathom's features. Companies on Portfolio can be upgraded to Fathom Pro at any time.

The Types of Fathom Forecasts

There are three different ways to start your forecast in Fathom:.

All setup options take you to the same forecasting tool, so you are not limited by the method you select. You should further tailor your forecast to your business and goals once it has been created.

All options result in a 3-way financial forecast (Profit & Loss, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow Statement). All options also enable you to do driver-based forecasting.

Each method only dictates how your forecast’s baseline is initially set up before you customise it further.

Who should use it...

Anyone creating a Fathom forecast for the first time.

Anyone who wants to use their future budget or a forecast outside of Fathom to forecast most of their Profit & Loss accounts.

If you don't choose this option, you can still use your budget in your Profit & Loss forecast.

Anyone who has created a forecast in Fathom before and knows how they want to set up their forecast's baseline initially.

What it does...

Gets you into the forecasting tool quickly by having Fathom set up your initial forecast for you so you can customise it further.

If you’ve imported a budget into Fathom, your future budget periods are used to set the forecast figures for your Profit & Loss accounts.

Enables you to set the baseline rules and account linkages as part of the forecast setup.

💡Smart Tip: New to forecasting in Fathom? Check out our Forecasting Overview video for a 19-min overview of the Forecasting tool.

Follow our 'Get Started with Forecasting' workflow.

Quick Start Forecast

When you choose the ‘Quick Start’ forecast option, Fathom will set up the default rules for your forecast so you can get started more quickly. You can change these selections or customise them further once you’re in the forecasting tool.

Profit & Loss

Fathom will look at your historical data and choose from the following rule options to get you started:

  • Link to Previous Period – Takes the actuals from the prior month, quarter, or year and uses them to forecast.

  • Smart Prediction:

    • Linear Regression – Finds the line of best fit based on the last 3, 6, 12, or 24 months of actuals and continues that trend into the forecast.

    • Average – Finds the average of the last 3, 6, 12, or 24 months of actuals and sets that as the forecast.

For Revenue, Cost of Sales, and Expense accounts, Fathom will determine which of the three value rules is best for your company’s forecast by taking your past financial data and running a forecast to test for accuracy in predicting your more recent actuals.

Example: Fathom will take your financial data from X months ago and run it using the ‘Link to Previous Period’ rule (month, quarter, and year will be tested) to see how accurate the rule is in predicting your financial data for more recent months.

Then, it will repeat the process using Smart Prediction (both linear regression and average options for 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months +/- seasonality) and determine which option yields more accurate results or the one with the smallest variance in predicting your more recent actuals.

The rule that is most accurate for each classification will be set up by Fathom as the default value rule for that account classification. You can review and set rules for individual Profit & Loss accounts once you are in your forecast.

📝 Note: Smart Prediction can only be used if you have at least three months of historical financials. If you have less than three months of actuals imported into Fathom, then the default value rule will be set to ‘Link to Previous Period’ and link to the most recent month’s actuals.

Balance Sheet

Fathom will identify your default accounts using keyword matching. This means that if accounts have unexpected names, Fathom may not be able to identify them. You can review and, if necessary, change any account linkages in your Forecast Settings once you are in your forecast.

Your default accounts will be chosen as follows:

Default Account

Reasoning

Accounts Receivable

Accounts Receivable account with the greatest value.

Accounts Payable

Accounts Payable account with the greatest value.

Cash

The cash account with the most variable value in the company/consolidated group's presentation currency.

Current Earnings

Current Earnings account with the greatest value or, if set up in the ‘Adjustments’ section of ‘Source Data’, the chosen default account.

Retained Earnings

Retained Earnings account with the greatest value or, if set up in the ‘Adjustments’ section of ‘Update Data’, the chosen default account.

Prepaid Expense & Unearned Revenue

Not set by Fathom. These are only required when using a timing profile that includes prepayments and can be set up in the Forecast Settings as part of the 'Forecast your Baseline' workflow.

For a Quick Start forecast, Fathom will assume that all Revenue, Cost of Sales, and Expenses are paid or received in the same month they are recorded on the Profit & Loss. You can change this assumption once you are in your forecast as part of the 'Forecast your Baseline' workflow.

Loans & Loan Repayment

Fathom will identify Long Term Debt and Short Term Debt accounts based on their account classification. To ensure we’re not setting up loan repayment schedules for debt accounts that are not loans, Fathom will identify debt accounts with a positive balance that have consistently decreased over the last 3 months.

Using the accounts’ historic values, we will calculate a blended Interest Rate. Schedules will be created for all identified accounts, posting to the Interest Rate Expense account with the highest value.

The loan repayment amount will be based on the average monthly decrease in the debt accounts over the last 3 months. Fathom assumes a default loan term of 20 years.

You can review and change these assumptions once you are in the forecasting tool as part of the 'Forecast your Baseline' workflow.

Depreciation

Fathom identifies the three Fixed Asset accounts with the greatest value based on their most recent balance and account classification.

We then use the historic values in these accounts to calculate an average depreciation percentage. With the average depreciation percentage, we calculate the depreciation for the top three accounts and add the depreciation schedule to the account with the largest balance.

You can review and change this depreciation schedule once you are in the forecasting tool as part of the 'Forecast your Baseline' workflow.

Tax Settings

Fathom will identify tax accounts based on account classification and keyword matching across all tax types. If you are using a cloud-based source accounting system, then Fathom will query the system to determine the appropriate tax rates.

Fathom will calculate a blended rate for all Tax Expenses based on the sum of earnings accounts compared to the sum of tax expense accounts.

💡Smart Tip: If you're forecasting in Fathom for the first time, we suggest following our 'Get Started with Forecasting' steps. These steps include the 'Forecast your Baseline' workflow.

Link to Budget

The 'Link to Budget' option specifically links your forecast to your imported Profit & Loss budget, so that future budget periods are used as your forecast values.

💡 Smart Tip: If you have already created a forecast that you want to bring into the forecasting tool, you can import that forecast as the budget for your company. The ‘Link to Budget’ option will then use those imported budget values as your forecast figures.

Your Balance Sheet and any Balance Sheet-derived P&L accounts (e.g. interest, depreciation, amortisation) will not be linked to your imported budget. Instead, those forecast values can be determined when you forecast your balance sheet.

You can review and change the Profit & Loss figures in your forecast once you are in the forecasting tool as part of the 'Forecast your Baseline' workflow.

Custom Forecast

If you’ve forecasted in Fathom before and know the rules you want to use to start your forecast, then the custom forecast onboarding option allows you to begin tailoring your forecast right away.

As part of the custom forecast setup process, you:

  • Select the default Cash, Accounts Receivable, Accounts Payable, Retained Earnings, and Current Earnings accounts.

  • Choose the default value rules and timing profiles for your Revenue, Cost of Sales, and Expense accounts.

  • Set up taxes.

  • Set up loan and depreciation schedules.

    • The accounts that appear as Short Term Debt, Long Term Debt, or Fixed Asset accounts are based on their account classification in Fathom.

You can change any of the choices and customise your forecast further once you’re in the forecasting tool as part of the 'Forecast your Baseline' workflow.


Next steps

Once you’ve created a forecast, you can review your choices and tailor the baseline to your business:

Learn more about the recommended forecasting workflow from our ‘Get Started with Forecasting’ article.


Learn more

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